A panel of 45 leading economists is optimistic that the national recession will end by early 2010 or even earlier, the National Association for Business Economics Outlook said in a report released today.

The panel expected the economy to bottom out by the end of June before inching up over the latter half of the year.

 Almost 75 percent in the survey guessed that the recession will end by September. Just shy of 20 percent predicted improvement by December, and 7 percent predicted progress by early 2010. Not one of the experts expected the woes to continue past next March.

Almost three-quarter of the panelists expected home sales to hit bottom soon. In fact, April home sales were down 3.5 percent from last year despite a 15 percent drop in national median housing prices.

There were conflicting views on when home prices will turn around. Sixty percent of those surveyed guessed by January or sooner. But 40 percent expected that prices will continue to drop through 2010 or even later.

Although it is still difficult to lock in financing, 90 percent of those surveyed said that Federal Reserve policy was helping.

The economists expected the jobless rate to increase to 9.8 percent by the end of the year, up from the current 8.9 percent and then taper off slightly to 9.3 percent in early 2010.

So far, the high unemployment rate and poor return on investments have meant that over the past two quarters, consumers are spending less and saving more. More than 70 percent in the survey predicted that thrift will continue over the next five years.

For now, the federal government is the only sector of the economy spending. The down side is that the national debt will hit a record $1.7 trillion in fiscal 2009. Fiscal 2010 is expected to see the debt drop slightly to $1.4 trillion.